ONE CAN NOT PREDICT unless it’s predictable. The famous graph to show this is a graph of turkey (animal not country) living happily for a year or two, being fed more and more by her gentle master untill Thanksgiving. So, if the prediction is based on the past, the sudden plunging of the graph line, so far going upward with nothing to even slightly warn about anything but the happy times, would come as a huge surprise. To the turkey and ignorant observers, not to the butcher. He could predict it almost to a minute when the history graph will become useless.

So if you have information that something is GOING to happen you can predict it with some level of certainty and prepare yourself for it. If you rely on history and past performance, you’ll most likely to end up on a dinner table.